Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2804 · DFW → YYZ

departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 10:49 PM EDT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2804 · DFW → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?