Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2810 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2810 · DFW → SFO

departs 4:17 PM CT · arrives 5:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±19 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2810 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?