Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2949 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2949 · ORD → RDU

departs 11:49 AM CT · arrives 2:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2949 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?