Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3023 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

AA 3023 · DFW → IAH

departs 10:46 PM CT · arrives 12:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3023 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?