Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3141 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 3141 · ORD → SFO

departs 5:24 PM CT · arrives 7:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3141 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?