Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3236 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

AA 3236 · PHX → ORD

departs 11:34 PM MT · arrives 4:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ 11pm departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.34 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3236 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?