Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 324 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 324 · DFW → RNO

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 1:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 324 · DFW → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?