Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 409 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 409 · DFW → LIR

departs 10:44 AM CT · arrives 1:36 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at LIR more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

LIR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 409 · DFW → LIR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIR?