Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 801 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 801 · DFW → PHX

departs 2:49 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 801 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?