Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 983 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 983 · DFW → SAT

departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 2:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 983 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?