Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 721 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AS 721 · PDX → SAN

departs 9:02 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ 9am departures from PDX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 721 · PDX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?