Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 1214 · ATL → RIC
departs 2:36 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.