Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 1477 · ATL → ORD
departs 1:13 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.