Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 1481 · ATL → SDF
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 1:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Thu 10/29 7%
Fri 10/30 7%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 9%
Mon 11/2 7%
Tue 11/3 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
11am departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.