Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
DL 1596 · ATL → TRI
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 11%
Wed 11/4 12%
Thu 11/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at TRI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TRI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at ATL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TRI
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TRI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.