Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 1631 · MSY → LAX
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 4:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.