Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 1861 · ATL → SJU
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM AT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.