Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2698 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

DL 2698 · SEA → PHX

departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 9:29 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,429 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2698 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?