Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3115
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 3115 · ATL → SRQ
departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 4:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.