Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 3157 · ATL → MSY
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.