Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

DL 407 · LAX → DTW

departs 10:03 PM PT · arrives 4:21 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 407 · LAX → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?