Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Today

DL 412 · DTW → ORF

departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 412 · DTW → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?