Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

DL 496 · JFK → DFW

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 496 · JFK → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?