Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 571 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

DL 571 · BOS → SAN

departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ DL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 571 · BOS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?