Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 731 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

DL 731 · ATL → ILM

departs 10:19 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ATL are often late

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 731 · ATL → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?