Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
DL 8865 · LAX → LAS
departs 5:01 PM PT · arrives 6:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.