Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 8895 · OAK → SFO
departs 6:36 PM PT · arrives 7:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/31
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.