Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
F9 2269 · PHL → TPA
departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 43%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.