G7 4421 · SGF → ORD

departs 7:43 AM CT · arrives 9:26 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at SGF that day

↓ 7am departures from SGF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SGF (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4421 · SGF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?