KE 51 · ICN → HNL

departs 10:14 PM KST · arrives 11:17 AM HT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ICN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 51 · ICN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?