Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3489
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 3489 · TUL → DFW
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.