Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
MQ 3586 · DFW → MCI
departs 2:58 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.