Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3733
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 3733 · AUS → DFW
departs 1:53 PM CT · arrives 3:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.