Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3905
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 3905 · YQB → DFW
departs 3:38 PM EDT · arrives 6:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YQB
Weather at each end
YQB (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.