Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
MQ 3906 · LTO → DFW
departs 1:42 PM MST · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LTO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LTO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.