Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3980
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
MQ 3980 · CMI → ORD
departs 4:07 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMI
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.