Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4057
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 4057 · TUL → ORD
departs 5:43 PM CT · arrives 7:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.