Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4244
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
MQ 4244 · DFW → LTO
departs 11:57 AM CT · arrives 12:46 PM MST
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LTO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LTO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LTO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LTO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day
↑
11am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LTO
↓
Arrivals into LTO at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
LTO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.