Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3005 · SAN → MRY
departs 9:24 PM PT · arrives 11:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 15%
Wed 11/4 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
MRY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.