Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3051 · SAN → FAT
departs 7:01 PM PT · arrives 8:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.