Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3104 · SAN → SBA
departs 10:34 PM PT · arrives 11:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SBA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
10pm departures from SAN are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,433 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.