Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3115
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3115 · STS → BUR
departs 8:06 PM PT · arrives 9:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at STS that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,033 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.