Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3410 · SMF → SAN
departs 8:00 PM PT · arrives 9:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.