Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3472 · SAN → FAT
departs 9:57 PM PT · arrives 11:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.