Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4087 · SAN → LAX
departs 7:58 PM PT · arrives 9:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.