Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4166 · ATW → DTW
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from ATW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.