Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4636 · ORD → SBN
departs 5:52 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 71h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.