Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4659
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4659 · ORD → DSM
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 11:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/30 36%
Sat 10/31
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.