Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4786 · IAH → MSY
departs 9:54 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.