Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 5011 · TUL → DFW
departs 8:21 PM CT · arrives 9:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
8pm departures from TUL are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.